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Judge steel market oversupply of six standard

发布日期: 2012-7-15          浏览次数: 990


At present, all sectors of the steel prices tumbled very concern, but odani for steel market supply and demand relation but ideas have two opposed ideas, a belief that the steel market has become more and more serious, and supply, A notion that the steel market supply and demand in general is balanced, did not appear supply situation, the price of steel slump is mainly due to market the hype.


Phased surplus has into conclusion


Judge steel market oversupply of six standard: one is the steel social inventory continued large increases in sales is stagnant condition; 2 it is real sales plunged, Three is steel sales prices dropped sharply, in the long run, cost line below, Four is a steel industry a massive losses of the enterprise; Five is a batch of steel in collapse bankruptcy state; Six is steel imports obstruction that a large number of domestic steel low-priced exports.


Above six standard, can saying is GangShi serious supply or long-term supply is inevitable typical character. If the steel market first appear supply, steel industry will not immediately a massive losses, bankruptcy, serious consequences, but only performance for falling prices, profit growth plunged, appear even negative growth. At this time without prompt effects of restricting output, inevitable appear afore-mentioned six characteristics.


2005 is China's steel market by demand exceeds supply steering balance between supply and demand, supply the important year. According to the calculation, 2004 domestic pig iron production capacity of new 7340 tons, crude steel production capacity of new 74 million tons; Estimates that by the end of 2005 national pig iron capacity is reach 3.2 million tons, crude steel production capacity can reach 3.4 million tons. In 2005 by steel enterprises capacity expansions greatly restrict, including capital constrained condition and the government in steel project examination, some capacity may be delayed time duration, partial backward productivity will be eliminated, but expect 2006 national pig iron capacity still can be amounted to 3.5 million tons, crude steel production could reach 3.6 million tons.


Effects of restricting output insured is effective countermeasures


Chinese steel association according to the market operation condition of steel enterprises proposed control output, the fourth quarter are cut 5% above Suggestions. Effects of restricting output insured is foreign steel enterprises shall supply price declines of common measures, in line with international practice, is by no means manufacturing market supply and demand gap, price-gouging. Because domestic steel market already unlike previous total have a massive gap, even in zero imports have even net exports are difficult to balance.


Notable is, our country steel resource supply growth continues to increase. Priority is through the effects of restricting output, expand export and import less, alleviate the steel market supply, steel price can stabilises rebound. Cut insured and expand high-quality goods production has become the global steel production enterprise inevitably choice and way out, particularly to China steel production enterprises concerned, this is a realization of national steel industry policy, improve industry concentration of opportunity, through the enterprise spontaneous market behavior realize behind the productivity of eliminating, realize China steel production enterprise of the industry upgrading industries.


Steel price trend deviate from at home and abroad


Appear this phenomenon, main reason: it is domestic and international steel market supply and demand of the inevitable result. January to September, the world crude steel production was 8.2 million tons, 6.3 percent year-on-year. But China's steel production deduction, the world crude steel output reduce 500 tons. Year-on-year Europe, USA, Japan and other steel enterprises, in the market to appear supply situation has been in Nigeria. Be like at present most steel price rebound strong U.S., since August, resource supply decreased obviously, contradictions to reverse. While China's steel production sharply increasing continued.


2 it is our steel billet net imports the increase in the number of steel price drop accelerated. From the second half of the year 2004, China steel, steel billets, import and export greatly decreased, sharp increase, steel, steel billets, from the net imports into a net exports to dissolve the domestic steel output growth on the market pressure, stable domestic steel prices have played an important role. But from July began, the domestic steel, steel billets, total monthly again into the net imports, increase the market of domestic supply pressure, 2006 net exports, alleviate again large-scale domestic market pressure increased the difficulty.


Three is China's steel industry newly increased production capacity strong, 2004, is expected to about new 70 million tons in 2005 and 50 million - 6000 tons. New capacity is continuously releasing, especially focus release, caused domestic market oversupply, steel price decline.


Four is China's steel enterprises interests constraints and market restraint mechanism is weak, unable to make timely market signals effectively reaction. Among them, our country steel enterprise concentration is low, is also a factor, but not a primary factor. Our enterprise is obviously higher than the concentration degree of the plate, plate long material of the top ten enterprise accounting for the production of plate, wide strip 68.23% HSM before four accounts for the production of 62 percent or more. But in this round steel price decline plate and hot-rolled steel plate depreciates most malicious, a decline of 50 percent, or even less than long material price. Instead, long material small and medium-sized production enterprise numerous, but price declines, now it has less than plank takes the lead in small bounce. Here, a important reason is long material newly increased production capacity less and private enterprises, the market mechanism, interest mechanism restriction is stronger.


Because this year since nations successively introduced cancel billet exit drawback, reduce steel export drawback, cancellation, steel produce of jacking and so on a series of macroeconomic measures, increase the steel, steel billets, export cost to steel, steel billets, export formed some inhibition; 2 it is international steel market prices rebounded, mainly is euramerican steel enterprises, the result of the effects of restricting output international steel market is unlikely to accommodate our further expand export quantity, and the possibility of international trade friction happened increase. Therefore, the current domestic and international price of steel spreads although larger, but our country again recently formed steel exports mass unlikely.


Expectations of steel price effect is obvious

First, market environment, market background, market trend will produce correspondingly market expectations and corresponding operation strategy. For instance when the market supply and demand, price rising tightening, market expectations often can see many, will "do more". However, the market expectations sometimes to market changes factors have reacted, may be to shift to an earlier date or ultra reaction. In fact the market is very sensitive, not long ago steel association held steady steel market symposium, steel market appears instantly stabilises rebound signs. This shows, the markets are not blindly blind see empty, when there is good, the market can be awake to recognize and make certain reactions. But if the insured cannot cut into effect and far outstrips the demand, then steel price will fall.


Secondly, the market is expected to help both fell and help rise. Steel price bullish market expectations, users prefer more inventory, dealers would also more replenish onr's stock, the markets buy needs to be amplified, so will exceeds the real demand, promoting steel price rise. Steel price from 2003 to march this year, have been rocketing demand market base and market expectations, therefore the role of steel price in the rising process more or less appeared some bubble. When the market with "do much" psychological expectations, increase in industry profit, but also bring a variety of hidden trouble. When the market appears supply, steel price bearish,

users will minimize inventory, dealers also dare not to get in. Especially in the market demand supply from turning process, can produce certain help fall function, its lethality of the market is larger. We have embraced the expected price rise bring aid role and earnings, now is facing the challenges of help fall effect and test.


Third, market expectations and market operation, mainly affect is the middle demand than terminal demand. If the market supply and generally bearish appear, downstream user including traders inevitable will own enterprise inventory and steel to a minimum order compression, so market negotiable resources and steel inventory inevitably increase. Excessive steel inventory in turn prompted steel manufacturers depreciates shipment, causing the steel market price stumble endlessly. But in the second half of 2005, making a sharp drop in the price of steel market is so fragile, market mentality mentality from hyperactive, series of positive into flagging market signals have been ignored, this also is the market mentality towards the proof.


Steel price rebound profits element


First is is China's economy has entered with "fast and steady development" for the characteristics of the new stage. This phase of main mark is, the nation will be macro-control policies keep a relatively rapid economic growth. At fast speed and keep smooth, in developing smoothly kept fast speed, or, since want to go forward, they wanted to keep balance, this is our country economy at present developing the new features. Steel industry development must be able to adapt to the new situation, active response to the new situation bring challenges and opportunities. GDP and fixed asset investment growth is the two indexes weigh whether it helps steel industry development of two important reference coefficient. Generally speaking, if the economy growth, and keep high fixed asset investment growth is higher, and keep a certain scale, will be in steel industry development have two sides effect: on one hand, be helpful for steel industry keep high development speed, On the other hand, due to economic growth rate is higher, investment is very big to prevent its economy from overheating and brings unbalanced structure or short-term fluctuations, the country will remain on the steel industry macro-control and does not relax.


Next is currently steel price after falling sharply, partial variety price has fallen nearly cost area, the cost of steel price of supporting function should be gradually has revealed. Hot coil and rebar these two steel varieties recent market price trend is the best annotations. Comprehensive all aspects of information analysis, 2006 iron ore prices won't apparent negotiations fell, but compared to coke pig iron and other steel production material drop, 2006 steel overall in 2005 production cost will be the basis of a slight rise.


The third is the overseas steel price rise, domestic and international steel spreads expand, although cannot again strong boosting domestic steel price uplink, but to curb domestic steel imports. But 2006 currency appreciation expectations have really sure, freight also gradually to cut, so 2006 steel exports will have considerable resistance, and domestic shortage of high quality imported steel market share will increase.


At present the steel market overall low operation of the trend will continue, and if no incident, the influence of 2006 May not simple repetition 2005 rises and falls of steel price movements. Steel industry in recent years, although obviously faster growth rate market demand is growing, but steel supply growth greatly faster than demand growth, and steel capacity is relatively concentrated release, before 2004 demand situation has translated into since 2005 supply situation, cause the imbalance between supply and demand of the steel market, causing much and dispersed market excessive competition, price subsequently wide fluctuations, and compress the steel production and operation profit space. If steel capacity of steel industry concentrated release and industry concentration spent low don't adopt corresponding strong measures, at present the steel market whole trend will not have a fundamental change.

 

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